Tuesday, April 11, 2006

Special Analysis:
A Tactical Decision before the End Game

This post explores a possible situation that could arise within the next year. A series of events constituting what could be considered maximum political damage to President Bush and the Republican Party is set forth. Each event has some greater or lesser chance of actually coming to fruition. Tactical responses by Mr. Bush are assumed to be rational and to the end of minimizing the damage wrought. Having set forth this assumed sequence of events, a question is then posed concerning what response at one critical step is best from the perspective of George W. Bush, given that events will have otherwise overwhelmed successful countervailing responses on his part. Readers are encouraged to offer thoughtful consideration concerning the optimal decision for Mr. Bush to make.

Event One: Severe erosion of Mr. Bush's popularity specifically, as well as that of the Republicans in Congress generally, indicates by early October of this year that the up-coming November elections will result in the Democrats acquiring solid control of both Houses of Congress.

Event Two: Attempting to avert the disaster to the Republican Party, Vice President Richard Cheney resigns for health reasons before the election, and Mr. Bush exercises his power under Section 2 of the 25th Amendment to the Consitution of the United States, appointing a successor who is relatively untainted by scandals engulfing other members of the Bush Administration. Because the Republicans are still in control of both Houses of Congress at the time Mr. Cheney resigns and his successor is nominated by Mr. Bush, the new Vice President is easily and very quickly confirmed.

Event Three: Republican efforts to turn around public disgust with their rule in Washington are wholly unsuccessful, and the Democrats rout the Republicans in the November elections, taking solid majority control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Event Four: Almost immediately after Congress re-convenes in 2007, bitter anger on the part of Democrats spills out in multiple investigations, culminating in articles of impeachment being approved by the House, followed by an ugly Senate trial at the end of which President George W. Bush is convicted and removed from office.

Now, return to Event Two. By having Dick Cheney resign, the strategists for Mr. Bush have accomplished two important goals in the gathering storm: first, they have denied the Democrats the easier of the two targets of impeachment; second (and far more importantly), they have ensured that Bush's successor is still one of their own. To this second point, had Mr. Cheney remained and been impeached either before or concurrently with Mr. Bush, the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 would have directed that the Speaker of the House become President. Given that the Democrats would be in control of that body in 2007, the President until November of 2008 would then have undoubtedly been a Democrat. But by the timing of Mr. Cheney's resignation, the Republicans have ensured that they will remain in control of the Executive Branch of the United States government through 2008.

The question is now obvious:

Whom should George W. Bush appoint as successor to Richard Cheney as Vice President of the United States?

The Dark Wraith trusts readers see this as an important matter to consider.

This article is cross-posted from The Dark Wraith Forums.

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